Voting theories are used to explain why people vote the way they do. There are both long
term and short term factors that can influence the ways in which people vote. There are several theories of voting behaviour. These include Rational Choice model, Party Identification, and the Sociological model. ‘This essay will outline each of these theories and examine their effectiveness at explaining recent voting behaviour.’
Table of Contents
Voter theory 1- class.
One of the dominant ideas of voting behaviour is the sociological model, specifically class. Traditionally, social class was seen to be the most important factor associated with voting behaviour. In 1967, Peter Pulzer claimed that “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail.” This presumption can be substantiated with the fact that the Labour Party was founded with a commitment to the working class, and its origins lie in the trade union movement.
During the years 1946-1970, there was strong party alignment to the dominant two parties in British
politics: the Labour and Conservative Parties. This two party dominance reached a high point in 1951 when the Conservatives and Labour between them gained 96.8 per cent of the vote.
Middle and upper classes were much more likely to vote Conservative and the working classes were much more likely to vote Labour. AB,C1- Conservative and C2,DE- Labour. It suggests people vote on social class – many ‘working class’ are perceived to vote labour therefore if voter considers themselves ‘working class’ they vote labour, for example class DE are still most likely to vote Lab (2015 – lab 41% compared to con 27%) AB sill most likely to vote con (2015 – 45% vote con, compared to 26% voting lab)
However, since the 1970s there has been a low, but steady change in trends and voting behaviour.
Whilst in the past the working class have typically voted for the Labour Party, and the middle/upper classes have voted for the Conservative Party, things have changed. Class and partisan dealignment may have occurred due to the idea that class divisions in Britain are no longer as defined as they once were. Labour is now considered by some to be the party of the public sector as opposed to the working class.
The fight for the ‘centre ground’ in politics has forced the main political parties into the centre with many now under the belief that there is very little which separates Labour and the Conservatives.
Voting theory 2- age.
The Sociological model also explains why age is an important factor in influencing voting behaviour. In electoral terms, age seems to be the new dividing line in British politics. The starkest way to show this is to note that, amongst first time voters (those aged 18 and 19), Labour was forty seven percentage points ahead. Amongst those aged over 70, the Conservatives had a lead of fifty percentage points.
In fact, for every 10 years older a voter is their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by nine points. The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, is now 47 – up from 34 at the start of the campaign.
However, the impact of age on voting behaviour is affected by differing turnout among different age
groups. For example, despite an increase in youth turnout in the 2017 General Election, young people are still noticeably less likely to vote than older people. While 57% of 18 and 19 year-olds voted last week, for those aged 70+ the figure was 84%.
Voting theory 3- rational choice model.
Another dominant model of voting behaviour is the Rational Choice Model. At election time, some voters can be influenced by a single issue. Issues have become more important with voters more willing to ‘shop around’ ‘big issues’ such as the economy, health and education – and how a
party addresses these can gain or lose support. The rational choice model assumes that voters judge political parties either on their performance in government or on their potential performance.
This theory assumes that voting is not a reflex but a result of a cost/ benefit analysis of who we think will do the best job of running the country. It is conscious decisions about which party best represents a voter’s interest or wishes which are the main determinant of voting outcomes.
For example when asked half way through the 2015 UK general election campaign, 34% of voters
said that they may change their vote before election day, this is a huge increase on the 18% that said the same during the 1992 election. On the day of the 2015 election 21% said they were STILL willing to change their vote.
The dominance of single issues in politics can have a significant impact on voting behaviour. For
example, The Independence Referendum in Scotland in 2014 saw the rise in membership and votes for the SNP in the 2015 General Election. The SNP’s 2019 also suggested that this is an important factor as they focused on a wide range of issues where they had created legislation- demonstrating what they believe to be a strong record in government. This has arguably been a big reason for the high level of support for the SNP in recent elections.
However, although support for the main 2 parties has decreased from over 95% in the 1950’s, they
still attain over 65% of the vote combined – Support for the 2 main parties actually increased between 2010- 2015 despite the prominence of SNP, UKIP, the and the Greens.
Voting theory 4- Party identification model.
The final model of voting behaviour is the Party identification model (Party ID). This model relates to the long-term attachment of voters to a single party. With this model, voters consider themselves ‘supporters’ of their party. This model places a great deal of stress on early politicisation, i.e. voters may support the same party as their parents. Think of it in the same way as supporting a football team. It doesn’t matter how well the team performs, who the players and manager are, they will still retain life-long support.
This model is useful for explaining why some voters do not vote in line with their class or age. The
2017 Social Attitudes survey asked people if they identified with a party. Only 12% said they did not identify with any party.
The dominance of the public sector among middle class votes in Northern England and Scotland
means that these areas are more likely to identify with traditionally socialist ideas about high public spending, collectivism and trade union membership. That is what creates strong Party Identification with Labour in Northern England, and the SNP in Scotland.
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